Rasmussen Reports/1600 LV/May 21-24:
John McCain: 46%
Barack Obama: 44%


Over the last two weeks the candidates have been within 4 points of each other, with Obama and McCain trading the lead. Thus, it is a likely thing this race will be close. But, National Match Ups only carry so much weight, as our system is based on an electoral college, not the popular vote.


Missouri:
Survey USA/1523 LV/May 16-18:
John McCain: 48%
Barack Obama: 43%

This State Changes to "Tilts Republican".

California:
Public Policy Institute of California/1086 LV/May 12-18:
Barack Obama: 54%
John McCain: 37%

This State Changes To "Likely Democratic".

California:
Ramussen Reports/500 LV/May 19-20:
Barack Obama: 52%
John McCain: 38%

This State Changes To "Likely Democratic".

Nevada:
Rasmussen Reports/500 LV/May 20:
John McCain: 46%
Barack Obama: 40%

This State Changes to "Leans Republican".

New Hampshire:
Ramussen Reports/500 LV/May 21:
Barack Obama: 48%
John McCain: 43%

This State Changes To "Tilts Democratic".

Pennsylvania:
Ramussen Reports/500 LV/May 21:
Barack Obama: 45%
John McCain: 43%

This State Remains "Tilts Democratic".



So, it seems we have a mixed bag in our state-by-state polls: McCain loses steam in Missouri, McCain gains steam in Nevada, Obama opens a double digit lead in California, Obama flips New Hampshire to his column by 5 points, and McCain narrows Obama's lead in Pennsylvania.

Currently, McCain leads Obama in the electoral college: 307-231

In addition, there were several Congressional Polls:

Sam Graves in the Missouri 6th is in good shape holding a 10 point lead over former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes: 49%-39%.

In a poll conducted for Marilyn Musgrave she leads Senatorial Aide Betsey Markey by five: 47%-42%.

Democrat Jim Matheson in Utah's 2nd District is in excellent shape, leading wealthy businessman Bill Dew by over 40 points: 61%-20%.

Thelma Drake, after squeaking by in 2006 by 2 points, holds a much bigger lead over Diplomat Glenn Nye, leading 48%-32%.

Minnesota 1st Congressional District: Southern Portion of MN
Incumbent: Tim Walz
Republican Challengers: Dick Day(State Senator), Brian Davis(Wealthy Physician)
Democratic Challenger: None

After winning this marginally Republican seat from incumbent Gil Gutknecht by a 2 point margin, Rep. Walz is sitting pretty for re-election, despite being a Liberal Democrat in a rural district. To date he has raised just over $1.6 Million, whereas his opponents have just over $200,000 each. This district does favor Republican Presidential Candidates, but the Republican Congressional Candidates have to face each other in a September primary and will likely be damaged by the time the general election rolls around. CQ:Leans Democratic. Cook Report: Likely Democratic. Rothenberg Report: Leans Democratic. Me: Likely Democratic.

Minnesota 3rd Congressional District: Hennepin County
Incumbent: Jim Ramstad
Republican Challenger: Erik Paulsen(State Representative)
Democratic Challenger: Ashwin Madia(Iraq War Veteran, Attorney)

After incumbent Rep. Ramstad opted for retirement the Republicans found a replacement in similarly Centrist State Representative Erik Paulsen.  The Democrats picked Republican-turned-Democrat Iraq War Veteran and Attorney over seasoned State Senator Terri Bonoff in their nominating convention. Madia has some ground to make up in fund-raising as Paulsen has over twice what Madia has. But, the DCCC has added Madia to their "red-to-blue" program and that will afford him much cash.  CQ: Toss Up. Cook Report: Toss Up. Rothenberg Report: Toss Up. Me: Toss Up.

Minnesota 6th Congressional District: St Cloud
Incumbent: Michelle Bachmann
Republican Challenger: None
Democratic Challenger: Elwyn Tinkleberg(Former Mayor, Former State Secretary of Transportation)

After centrist incumbent Mark Kennedy retired to run for Senate in 2006, the Republicans selected Conservative State Senator Michelle Bachmann to face Liberal Activist Patty Wetterling. The polls often showed Wetterling with a lead, but Bachmann won here by 8 points, and this is contributed to the Conservative-Lean of the District. This district did give Bush with 56% of the vote in 2004. To counter balance the Conservative lean of this district the Democrats selected Centrist former Mayor Elwyn Tinkleberg to run under their banner. If Tinkleberg wants to make this race competitive he needs to step up in fund-raising, as he has just over $200,000, whereas Bachmann has over $1.5 Million.  CQ: Likely Republican. Cook Report: Likely Republican. Rothenberg Report: Likely Republican. Me: Likely Republican.

Mississippi 1st Congressional District: Tupelo/Southaven
Incumbent: Travis Childers
Republican Challenger: Greg Davis(Southaven Mayor)
Democratic Challenger: None

After incumbent Rep. Wicker was appointed to the United States Senate, this seat was originally thought safe for the Republicans.  The Democrats then picked Conservative, Pro-Gun, Pro-Life Clerk Travis Childers, and the Republicans picked lesser known Greg Davis over well known physician Glenn McCollough. Thus this race moved quickly into the toss-up column, and the Democrats prevailed. In November in will be a difficult hold for the Democrats, due to the overwhelming Republican lean of the District.  CQ: Toss Up. Cook Report: Toss Up. Rothenberg Report: Toss Up. Me: Toss Up.

Missouri 6th Congressional District: Kansas City
Incumbent: Sam Graves
Republican Challenger: None
Democratic Challenger: Kay Barnes(Former Mayor)

Normally Congressman Graves faces nominal opposition in this solidly Republican seat, and wins with well over 60%.  This election the Democrats have recruited the former Mayor of Kansas City, Kay Barnes, she will make this race competitive as Kansas City is the most populated area in the district. Both candidates are raising vast amounts of money, Rep. Graves has just over $1.5 Million, and Mayor Barnes just over $1.4 Million. Though Graves does start out the favorite here, being the incumbent, and the fact it picked Bush with 57% of the vote in '04.  CQ: Leans Republican. Cook Report: Leans Republican. Rothenberg Report: Leans Republican. Me: Leans Republican

Missouri 9th Congressional District: Rural NW Missouri
Incumbent: Kenny Hulshof
Republican Challenger: Robert Onder(State Representative)
Democratic Challengers: Judy Baker(State Representative), Steve Gaw(State Representative),

After incumbent Rep. Hulshof opted to run for Governor, it left this solidly Republican rural Missouri district open.  Currently both fields are crowded, but each side has a distinct front runner. For the Republicans State Rep. Robert Onder who has raised over $370,000. For the Democrats State Rep. Judy Baker who has just over $215,000 raised. Though, this district voted 59% for President Bush, it was, for years, represented by Democratic Rep. Volkmer (until he was unseated by Hulshof in '96). CQ: Leans Republican. Cook Report: Likely Republican. Rothenberg Report: Safe Republican. Me: Likely Republican.

Nevada 3rd Congressional District: Las Vegas Suburbs
Incumbent: Jon Porter
Republican Challenger: None
Democratic Challenger: Dina Titus(State Senate Minority Leader)

After nearly knocking off incumbent Jon Porter in '06 the Democrats recruited Clark County Prosecutor Robert Daskas to try in 2008. Apparently Mr. Daskas didn't realize what it would take, and dropped out after just a couple of months. The Democrats then recruited State Senator Minority and 2006 Democratic Gubernatorial nominee to run, while she got in late this district did prefer John Kerry by one point in 2004, and she is a top teir candidate.  Porter has raised for $1.6 Million, and Titus will need to match every penny of that in order to win.  CQ: Leans Republican. Cook Report: Leans Republican. Rothenberg Report: Leans Republican. Me: Leans Republican.

New Hampshire 1^st Congressional District: Manchester
Incumbent: Carol Shea-Porter
Republican Challengers: Jeb Bradley(Former Congressman), John Stephan(Conservative Activist)
Democratic Challenger: None

After Democratic activist Carol Shea-Porter upset 4 year incumbent Congressman Jeb Bradley in 2006 he announced that night he would run again in 2008. The former Congressman will be a formidable challenger, as he has raised over $550,000. The incumbent had just over $660,000. (Though a problem for Bradley is he facing the Conservative activist he beat in the 2002 primary). I believe Bradley does start out the slightest of favorites in this slightly Republican district, due to both, his formidable campaign and the fact McCain heads the Republican ticket. Also, a poll out at the beginning of May had Bradley leading Shea-Porter 45%-39%, and had her leading Stephan by an identical margin. CQ: Leans Democratic. Cook Report: Leans Democratic. Rothenberg Report: Tilts Democrat.Me: Tilts Republican.

New Hampshire 2nd Congressional District: Concord/Nashua
Incumbent: Paul Hodes
Republican Challengers: Robert Clegg(State Senator), Jennifer Horn(Conservative Activist)
Democratic Challenger: None

After winning this marginally Democratic seat from Moderate Republican Charlie Bass by a 7 point margin, Rep. Hodes is sitting pretty for re-election. To date he has raised just over $1.2 Million. Whereas his opponents have just over $100,000, and $70,000 respectively. The one thing going for the Republican is the fact John McCain heads the Republican ticket, and that should aide the nominee in his or her congressional bid. CQ:Likely Democratic. Cook Report: Likely Democratic. Rothenberg Report: Safe Democratic. Me: Likely Democratic.

New Jersey 3rd Congressional District: Burlington County
Incumbent: Jim Saxton
Republican Challengers: Chris Myers(Mayor), John Kelly(County Freeholder)
Democratic Challenger: John Adler(State Senator)

After incumbent Rep. Saxton opted for retirement two Republicans announced their intentions to run for the seat; Mayor Chris Myers and Freeholder John Kelly. Both have been running nasty primary campaigns hurting the winner's chances in the general. In addition this is a marginally Democratic district, and the democrat has well over $1 Million on hand.  CQ: Leans Republican. Cook Report: Toss Up. Rothenberg Report: Tilt Democratic. Me: Toss Up.

New Jersey 7th Congressional District: Scotch Plains
Incumbent: Mike Ferguson
Republican Challegers: Kate Whitman(Republican Activist), Leonard Lance(State Senator), Martin Marks(Mayor)
Democratic Challenger: Lisa Stender(State Representative)

After incumbent Rep. Ferguson opted for retirement a whole crowd of Republicans announced their intentions to run for the seat. Though, only three (Whitman, Lance, and Marks) are making an effort, and beating up each other in the primary. The problem is none of them have raised more the $500,000, and Stender has over $1 Million. Since this is a marginally Republican district, the Republican nominee should have the advantage to a degree.  CQ: Leans Republican. Cook Report: Toss Up. Rothenberg Report: Toss Up. Me: Toss Up.

New Mexico 1st Congressional District: Albuquerque
Incumbent: Heather Wilson
Republican Challangers: Darren White(Sheriff)
Democratic Challanger: Martin Heinrich(Albuquerque Councilman)

After incumbent Rep. Wilson opted to run for Senate, it left this marginally Democratic district open. For the Democrats Councilman Herinrich, who has just over $660,000 raised, will be fighting this district. For the Republicans it will be the Sheriff of Bernalillo (the second largest city in the District), who has raised just under $450,000 . CQ: Toss Up. Cook Report: Toss Up. Rothenberg Report: Toss Up. Me: Toss Up.

New York 13th Congressional District: Staten Island/Brooklyn
Incumbent: Vito Fossella
Republican Challenger: Un-Clear
Democratic Challenger: Un-Clear

Right now the fate of this seat, and it's incumbent, is unclear. The incumbent was just arrested for drunk driving, and has admitted to fathering an out of wedlock child. There is pressure from both sides for him to resign, he has resisted thus far. Currently both parties are polling potential candidates for the seat. The seat did favor John Kerry by 1 point in 2004. Though a recent poll shows Fossella's constituents want him to remain in office, and his popularity is registering at 67%. CQ: Toss Up. Cook Report: Toss Up. Rothenberg Report: Likely Republican. Me: No Prediction Yet.

New York 20th Congressional District: Saratoga Springs
Incumbent: Kirsten Gillibrand
Republican Challenger: Sandy Treadwell(Former NY Secretary of State)
Democratic Challenger: None

After losing this marginally Republican seat to Kirsten Gillibrand by a 14,000 vote margin, the Republicans are working hard to win this seat back. To date Treadwell has well over $1.5 Million. Though the incumbent has over $3 Million raised, but will face a tough re-election battle as Bush won this district with 55% of the vote, that is why I am challenging the experts and calling it a “toss-up”. CQ: Leans Democratic. Cook Report: Leans Democratic. Rothenberg Report: Likely Democratic. Me: Toss-Up.

New York 25th Congressional District: Syracuse
Incumbent: Jim Walsh
Republican Challenger: Dale Sweetland(Former Onondaga County Executive)
Democratic Challenger: Dan Maffei('06 Nominee)

After incumbent Rep. Walsh opted for retirement it took the Republicans a time to pick their candidate, and settled with the strongest they could have. First they picked former State Fair Director Peter Cappuccilli, but he was trailing the Democrat by double digits, and the current candidate only trails by one. Currently the Democrat has just over $800,000 and the Republican entered after the last FEC deadline, but this will be a tight race in a marginally Democratic district. CQ: Toss Up. Cook Report: Toss Up. Rothenberg Report: Leans Democratic. Me: Toss Up.

New York 26th Congressional District: Niagara/Eire Counties
Incumbent: Tom Reynolds
Republican Challenger: Christopher Lee(Wealthy Businessman)
Democratic Challenger: Johnathan Powers(Iraq Vet), Jack Davis('04/'06 Nominee)

After incumbent Rep. Reynolds opted for retirement it took the Republicans a time to pick their candidate, and settled with businessman Christopher Lee. Currently the Democrats have couple of fairly well funded challengers, but the Republicans hope to hold this marginal GOP and will fund their candidate well, in addition he has promised to “pour as much money as it takes to hold this seat”. Though should Davis win the primary, he will self fund as well.  CQ: Leans Republican. Cook Report: Toss Up. Rothenberg Report: Toss Up. Me: Tilts Republican.

New York 29th Congressional District: Elmira
Incumbent: Randy Kuhl
Republican Challenger: None
Democratic Challenger: Eric Massa('06 Nominee)

While Rep. Kuhl has never had a strangle-hold on this rural, marginally Republican district he has always managed to be re-elected here. Though in 2006 he was only re-elected by a couple of points, and has been out raised by his opponent this time around, he should be favored for re-election as Bush did win 57% here. CQ: Leans Republican. Cook Report: Leans Republican. Rothenberg Report: Tilts Republican. Me: Tilts Republican.

North Carolina 8th Congressional District: Concord/Laurinburg
Incumbent: Robin Hayes
Republican Challangers: None
Democratic Challanger: Larry Kissell('06 Nominee)

When incumbent Congressman Hayes squeaked by a political novice by only 329 votes in a marginally Republican district it was a surprise. This time Hayes is determined not to be caught off guard, but complicating matters he voted for CAFTA which hurt his district, and will likely be a major campaign issue. Rep. Hayes has drawn the same challenger who nearly knocked him off in 2006, for this formidable challenge he has raised over $1.8 Million and his opponent just under $500,000. Though, Kissell will get help from the DCCC. For now it would seem Hayes is the very slight favorite, but his vote on CAFTA will hurt him. In addition, President Bush did get 55% in this district  CQ: Toss Up. Cook Report: Leans Republican. Rothenberg Report: Tilts Republican. Me: Tilts Republican.

Ohio 1st Congressional District: Cincinnati
Incumbent: Steve Chabot
Republican Challenger: None
Democratic Challenger: Steve Driehaus(State Representative)

When incumbent Congressman Chabot squeaked by a an under-funded competitor with only 53% in a seat he has held since 1995, it was a surprise. This time Chabot is determined not to be caught off guard, but the Democrats have recruited well-liked State Representative Steve Driehaus who will be formidable. To date the Congressman has raised over $1.2 Million, and his opponent has just under $700,000. Because President Bush only got 51% in this district, it will be expected the DCCC will spend heavily for Driehaus here, and 527 groups will spend for both candidates.  CQ: Leans Republican. Cook Report: Leans Republican. Rothenberg Report: Leans Republican. Me: Leans Republican.

Ohio 2nd Congressional District: Lebanon/Portsmouth
Incumbent: Jean Schmidt
Republican Challenger: None
Democratic Challenger: Victoria Wulsin('06 Nominee)

When Congressman Portman resigned in 2005 to work in the Bush Administration, a special election was called and in a surprise State Representative Schmidt won this seat by a mere 5,000